Skepticism Motivated: On the Skeptical Import of Motivated Reasoning

Empirical work on motivated reasoning suggests that our judgments are influenced to a surprising extent by our wants, desires and preferences (Kahan 2016; Lord, Ross, and Lepper 1979; Molden and Higgins 2012; Taber and Lodge 2006). How should we evaluate the epistemic status of beliefs formed through motivated reasoning? For example, are such beliefs epistemically justified? Are they candidates for knowledge? In liberal democracies, these questions are increasingly controversial as well as politically timely (Beebe et al. 2018; Lynch forthcoming, 2018; Slothuus and de Vreese 2010). And yet, the epistemological significance of motivated reasoning has been almost entirely ignored by those working in mainstream epistemology. We aim to rectify this oversight. Using politically motivated reasoning as a case study, we show how motivated reasoning gives rise to three distinct kinds of skeptical challenges. We conclude by showing how the skeptical import of motivated reasoning has some important ramifications for how we should think about the demands of intellectual humility

Confirming the existence of π-allyl-palladium intermediates during the reaction of meta photocycloadducts with palladium(ii) compounds

The transient existence of π-allyl-palladium intermediates formed by the reaction of Pd(OAc)2 and anisole-derived meta photocycloadducts has been demonstrated using NMR techniques. The intermediates tended to be short-lived and underwent rapid reductive elimination of palladium metal to form allylic acetates, however this degradation process could be delayed by changing the reaction solvent from acetonitrile to chloroform

Understanding DCM: ten simple rules for the clinician.

Despite almost a decade since the introduction of Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM), there remains some confusion within the wider neuroimaging, neuroscience and clinical communities as to what DCM studies are probing, and what all the jargon means. We provide ten simple rules, and a theoretical example to gently introduce the reader to the rationale behind DCM analyses, and how one should consider neuroimaging data and experiments that use DCM. It is deliberately written as a primer or orientation for non-technical imaging neuroscientists or clinicians who have had to contend with the technical intricacies of understanding DCM

Computerised tomography indices of raised intracranial pressure and traumatic brain injury severity in a New Zealand sample

After traumatic brain injury (TBI) complex cellular and biochemical processes occur¹ including changes in blood flow and oxygenation of the brain; cerebral swelling; and raised intracranial pressure (ICP).² This can dramatically worsen the damage³ and contributes to mortality

Sports-related brain injury in the general population: An epidemiological study

Objectives To determine the incidence, nature and severity of all sports-related brain injuries in the general population. Design Population-based epidemiological incidence study. Methods Data on all traumatic brain injury events sustained during a sports-related activity were extracted from a dataset of all new traumatic brain injury cases (both fatal and non-fatal), identified over a one-year period in the Hamilton and Waikato districts of New Zealand. Prospective and retrospective case ascertainment methods from multiple sources were used. All age groups and levels of traumatic brain injury severity were included. Details of the registering injuries and recurrent injuries sustained over the subsequent year were obtained through medical/accident records and assessment interviews with participants. Results Of 1369 incident traumatic brain injury cases, 291 were identified as being sustained during a sports-related activity (21% of all traumatic brain injuries) equating to an incidence rate of 170 per 100,000 of the general population. Recurrent injuries occurred more frequently in adults (11%) than children (5%). Of the sports-related injuries 46% were classified as mild with a high risk of complications. Injuries were most frequently sustained during rugby, cycling and equestrian activities. It was revealed that up to 19% of traumatic brain injuries were not recorded in medical notes. Conclusions Given the high incidence of new and recurrent traumatic brain injury and the high risk of complications following injury, further sport specific injury prevention strategies are urgently needed to reduce the impact of traumatic brain injury and facilitate safer engagement in sports activities. The high levels of ‘missed’ traumatic brain injuries, highlights the importance in raising awareness of traumatic brain injury during sports-related activity in the general population

Hydroxyl radical reactivity at the air-ice interface

Hydroxyl radicals are important oxidants in the atmosphere and in natural waters. They are also expected to be important in snow and ice, but their reactivity has not been widely studied in frozen aqueous solution. We have developed a spectroscopic probe to monitor the formation and reactions of hydroxyl radicals in situ. Hydroxyl radicals are produced in aqueous solution via the photolysis of nitrite, nitrate, and hydrogen peroxide, and react rapidly with benzene to form phenol. Similar phenol formation rates were observed in aqueous solution and bulk ice. However, no reaction was observed at air-ice interfaces, or when bulk ice samples were crushed prior to photolysis to increase their surface area. We also monitored the heterogeneous reaction between benzene present at air-water and air-ice interfaces with gas-phase OH produced from HONO photolysis. Rapid phenol formation was observed on water surfaces, but no reaction was observed at the surface of ice. Under the same conditions, we observed rapid loss of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) anthracene at air-water interfaces, but no loss was observed at air-ice interfaces. Our results suggest that the reactivity of hydroxyl radicals toward aromatic organics is similar in bulk ice samples and in aqueous solution, but is significantly suppressed in the quasi-liquid layer (QLL) that exists at air-ice interfaces

Who Calls the Shots?: How Mutual Funds Vote on Director Elections

Shareholder voting has become an increasingly important focus of corporate governance, and mutual funds control a substantial percentage of shareholder voting power. The manner in which mutual funds exercise that power, however, is poorly understood. In particular, because neither mutual funds nor their advisors are beneficial owners of their portfolio holdings, there is concern that mutual fund voting may be uninformed or tainted by conflicts of interest. These concerns, if true, hamper the potential effectiveness of regulatory reforms such as proxy access and say on pay. This article analyzes mutual fund voting decisions in uncontested director elections. We find that mutual funds use a variety of strategies to economize on the costs of making voting decisions, including having funds in the same fund family vote in lockstep, voting virtually always in accordance with management recommendations, and voting virtually always in accordance with recommendations of ISS. Smaller fund families employ these strategies to a greater extent than larger families. We further adduce evidence on how ISS recommendations affect fund voting. Funds that account for less than 10% of the assets in our sample exhibit a strong tendency to follow ISS recommendations, a much smaller percentage than funds that virtually always follow management recommendations (approximately 25% of assets). A much larger percentage (36% of the assets) votes in accordance with ISS withhold recommendations in approximately 50% of the cases. We conclude that the influence of ISS is due more to funds’ measured evaluation of the ISS recommendations rather than to funds blindly following these recommendations. We find no evidence that funds in families that are affiliated with commercial banks, investment banks, or insurance companies have a stronger proclivity than independent funds to vote in accordance with management recommendations or to shield their votes from criticism in order to maintain good business relations or generate new business for their affiliates. The largest fund families – Vanguard, Fidelity, and American Funds, each of which individually accounts for roughly 11% of total mutual fund assets – vote substantially differently both from each other and from ISS recommendations. This is strong evidence of heterogeneity in the voting behavior of mutual funds in director elections. Finally, we examine the factors associated with high (in excess of 30%) withhold votes in director elections. An ISS withhold recommendation, in conjunction with at least one of four factors – a withhold vote by Fidelity, the director missing 25% of board meetings, the company having ignored a shareholder resolution that received majority support, and a Vanguard withhold vote on outside directors with business ties to the company – is associated with a 49% probability of receiving a high withhold vote. Directors in these groups account for 48% of all directors who received high withhold votes. By contrast, an ISS withhold recommendation that is not combined with one of these factors is associated with only a 21% probability of a high withhold vote, and the general probability of a high withhold vote is a mere 2%. These findings suggest steps that companies and directors should take to try to avoid high withhold votes. They are also evidence that not all ISS recommendations have the same impact on voting outcomes

Who Calls the Shots?: How Mutual Funds Vote on Director Elections

Shareholder voting has become an increasingly important focus of corporate governance, and mutual funds control a substantial percentage of shareholder voting power. The manner in which mutual funds exercise that power, however, is poorly understood. In particular, because neither mutual funds nor their advisors are beneficial owners of their portfolio holdings, there is concern that mutual fund voting may be uninformed or tainted by conflicts of interest. These concerns, if true, hamper the potential effectiveness of regulatory reforms such as proxy access and say on pay. This article analyzes mutual fund voting decisions in uncontested director elections. We find that mutual funds use a variety of strategies to economize on the costs of making voting decisions, including having funds in the same fund family vote in lockstep, voting virtually always in accordance with management recommendations, and voting virtually always in accordance with recommendations of ISS. Smaller fund families employ these strategies to a greater extent than larger families. We further adduce evidence on how ISS recommendations affect fund voting. Funds that account for less than 10% of the assets in our sample exhibit a strong tendency to follow ISS recommendations, a much smaller percentage than funds that virtually always follow management recommendations (approximately 25% of assets). A much larger percentage (36% of the assets) votes in accordance with ISS withhold recommendations in approximately 50% of the cases. We conclude that the influence of ISS is due more to funds’ measured evaluation of the ISS recommendations rather than to funds blindly following these recommendations. We find no evidence that funds in families that are affiliated with commercial banks, investment banks, or insurance companies have a stronger proclivity than independent funds to vote in accordance with management recommendations or to shield their votes from criticism in order to maintain good business relations or generate new business for their affiliates. The largest fund families – Vanguard, Fidelity, and American Funds, each of which individually accounts for roughly 11% of total mutual fund assets – vote substantially differently both from each other and from ISS recommendations. This is strong evidence of heterogeneity in the voting behavior of mutual funds in director elections. Finally, we examine the factors associated with high (in excess of 30%) withhold votes in director elections. An ISS withhold recommendation, in conjunction with at least one of four factors – a withhold vote by Fidelity, the director missing 25% of board meetings, the company having ignored a shareholder resolution that received majority support, and a Vanguard withhold vote on outside directors with business ties to the company – is associated with a 49% probability of receiving a high withhold vote. Directors in these groups account for 48% of all directors who received high withhold votes. By contrast, an ISS withhold recommendation that is not combined with one of these factors is associated with only a 21% probability of a high withhold vote, and the general probability of a high withhold vote is a mere 2%. These findings suggest steps that companies and directors should take to try to avoid high withhold votes. They are also evidence that not all ISS recommendations have the same impact on voting outcomes

Loop integration results using numerical extrapolation for a non-scalar integral

Loop integration results have been obtained using numerical integration and extrapolation. An extrapolation to the limit is performed with respect to a parameter in the integrand which tends to zero. Results are given for a non-scalar four-point diagram. Extensions to accommodate loop integration by existing integration packages are also discussed. These include: using previously generated partitions of the domain and roundoff error guards.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, revised, contribution to ACAT03 (Dec. 2003